A new cross-country study will examine how distributional impact assessments and social budgeting are used, shaping how policies affect citizens across Europe.
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A new European Commission study will take stock of how distributional impact assessments and social budgeting are used across EU Member States, and how recent amendments to EU directives are being put into practice. The work could influence how governments judge the fairness of their policies and how public money is aligned with social outcomes.
In November 2025, the Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (DG EMPL) published a contract notice for a study on the use of distributional impact assessments and social budgeting in EU Member States. The brief is succinct but clear about its core aims.
According to the notice, the contractor will be asked to enhance understanding of:
Distributional impact assessment is about examining how the effects of a policy or measure are shared between different groups – for example by income level, region or social situation. Social budgeting, in turn, links budget decisions to social goals, asking how spending and revenue choices support or hinder inclusion and protection.
By combining these two strands in a single study, DG EMPL is signalling an interest not only in whether policies work in aggregate, but in who gains, who loses and how that is reflected in national budget processes. The reference to amendments to existing directives suggests that EU legislators have already updated parts of the legal framework, and now want a clearer picture of how those changes are being translated into national practice.
The link to directive amendments gives this procurement a wider policy edge. The contractor will have to look beyond technical budgeting procedures and into the way Member States are applying EU rules in their social and employment systems.
Although the notice does not spell out which directives are in scope, the focus on implementation raises several practical questions that the study is likely to explore:
DG EMPL sits at the intersection of employment policy, social protection and inclusion. Commissioning a cross-country assessment of distributional impact and social budgeting practices suggests a desire for a more consistent approach to assessing fairness across the EU. It also reflects growing attention in Brussels to how policy choices play out for different groups of citizens, not just to headline growth or employment figures.
The DG EMPL tender is one of a series of recent procurements across Europe that put social impact and distributional questions at the centre of evaluation work.
In November 2025, Portugal’s Agência para o Desenvolvimento e Coesão launched a study evaluating the impact of European funds on employment and their role in combating social exclusion. That notice puts distributional questions – who benefits from EU co-financed spending, and how far it reaches people at risk of exclusion – squarely on the agenda.
Earlier, in May 2025, Estonia’s Riigi Tugiteenuste Keskus sought an independent midterm evaluation of 2021–2027 Structural Funds activities for its Ministry of Social Affairs, based on document analysis and interviews. The focus there is on the relevance and effectiveness of funding conditions linked to social policy measures.
At local and regional level, similar questions are being asked. In June 2025, Latvia’s Ministry of Welfare tendered a study on the provision of social support in municipalities and options for improvement. Around the same time, Poland’s Mazowieckie Centrum Polityki Społecznej commissioned a study into the needs of people with disabilities in Mazovia, to underpin a provincial programme on equal opportunities and social inclusion.
In July 2025, another Polish region, the Silesian Voivodeship, went to market for an analysis of the social aspects of a just transition, with EU standards explicitly guiding the final report. That contract links social analysis to the distributional effects of climate and industrial change in a coal-dependent region.
The trend is visible too in how evaluation systems themselves are being redesigned. In March 2025, the Czech Republic’s Technologická agentura ČR called for an innovative solution to monitor, evaluate and assess the impact of human-rights grant programmes, with a strong emphasis on methodological setup, testing of evaluation methods and process analysis.
Other buyers are tying research directly to policy design. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, in June 2025, sought economic and market research to measure the impact of policy treatments on public acceptance of wind and solar projects. Romania’s Ministry of Investments and European Projects, in July 2025, launched an evaluation of its 2021–2027 Partnership Agreement, looking at the socio-economic impact of broadband, water and sewerage investments and the performance of integrated territorial approaches.
At EU level, DG TRADE’s April 2025 notice for a sustainability impact assessment in support of free trade talks with Gulf Cooperation Council countries goes even further, explicitly covering economic, social, environmental and human-rights impacts as a tool to optimise policy choices.
Taken together, these notices show public authorities at EU, national and regional level investing in evidence on who benefits from policies and spending, and how far current frameworks deliver on social objectives. DG EMPL’s focus on distributional impact assessment and social budgeting fits squarely within that pattern.
By commissioning a study that brings together distributional analysis, social budgeting and the implementation of directive amendments, the Commission is pushing the debate upstream, towards how policies and budgets are designed in the first place. The work could help clarify what “good practice” looks like when governments seek to understand and manage the distributional effects of their decisions.
Several of the comparable procurements highlight how such studies are used. The Portuguese and Irish notices explicitly link research to tackling social exclusion and testing policy measures, while the DG TRADE impact assessment is framed as a tool to optimise choices in trade negotiations. Romania’s evaluation of its Partnership Agreement focuses on whether major infrastructure investments deliver the intended socio-economic impact.
Against that backdrop, the new DG EMPL study is likely to provide a reference point for how Member States incorporate a distributional and social lens into both legislation and budgeting. It may also inform future guidance or legislative proposals where questions of fairness and social inclusion are central.
For now, the key developments to watch will be the selection of the contractor, the analytical approach they propose to capturing cross-country practice on distributional impact assessments and social budgeting, and how far the Commission later chooses to draw on the findings in its wider social and employment agenda. The outcome could shape how public finances across the EU are scrutinised for their effects on different groups of citizens.
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